155 – Normal Predictions, and Change is Bad

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method!

Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad.

(Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.)

Things of interest:

Scott Alexander’s predictions 2022

Timing:
32:15 Main Topic
1:38:43 Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?