120 – Why Can’t We Brain Good?

One Response to 120 – Why Can’t We Brain Good?

1. Lorien Chang says:

   October 4, 2020 at 4:30 pm

   Posting here because this will be somewhat long, and discord in general seems like more of an in-the-moment chat platform than a long-form platform.

   The emphatic statement that the west coast fires are not from global warming is not entirely correct. There are several factors at play here, and climate change is a major one. Increasing fire along the western coast, and around the world in mediterranian climates, has been a predicted outcome of climate change for quite a while.
   https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr870/pnw_gtr870.pdf
   https://www.skepticalscience.com/wildfires-global-warming.htm
   https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-climate-change-is-affecting-wildfires-around-the-world
   https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-we-know-about-wildfires-and-climate-change/

   The long and short of this is that climate change is affecting vegetation; heat stress and lack of water are both directly increasing the fuel load in forests by killing trees directly,
   https://washingtondnr.wordpress.com/2019/06/06/is-my-tree-dying-how-climate-change-and-drought-are-changing-the-landscape/
   https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/grand-old-trees-are-dying-leaving-forests-younger-shorter/#close
   https://insideclimatenews.org/news/24042020/forest-trees-climate-change-deforestation
   https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/science/trees-climate-die-offs-west.html
   https://ppo.puyallup.wsu.edu/plant-health-concerns/redcedar/
   https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/06/13/western-red-cedars-are-dying-of-drought-in-vancouver-and-scientists-say-its-one-more-portent-of-climate-change.html
   https://sflonews.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/western-redcedar-east-of-the-cascades-a-species-in-decline/
   http://blogs.oregonstate.edu/mgmetro/2019/10/04/natters-notes/
   https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2019/07/22/drought-summer-weather-climate-change-killing-oregon-trees-douglas-fir/1740863001/

   and increasing fuel load by stressing trees, which makes them vulnerable to insect and disease damage, killing them indirectly.
   https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/03/global-warming-fuels-bark-beetles-tree-killing-menaces/
   https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2012/05/18/impact-climate-change-forest-diseases-assessed-new-us-forest-service-report
   https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/gtr/gtr-nrs-p-51papers/33venette-p-51.pdf
   https://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/topics/bark-beetles-and-climate-change-united-states
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyGT7-XWPu0
   https://dnrtreelink.wordpress.com/2018/07/03/emerging-issues-with-western-hemlock-and-douglas-fir/
   https://grist.org/climate-energy/oh-rot-climate-change-could-topple-northwests-douglas-fir-forests/

   Furthermore, vegetation can be dehydrated compared to the healthy normal, making that vegetation burn hotter and faster.
   https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1
   https://www.auburn.edu/academic/forestry_wildlife/fire/weather_elements.htm
   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340279708_Climate_change_is_increasing_the_risk_of_extreme_autumn_wildfire_conditions_across_California
   https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-australia-unprecedented-bushfires.html

   Climate change is also changing local weather patterns, making the fire seasons longer, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2315/study-fire-seasons-getting-longer-more-frequent/

   and increasing the rate of lightning strikes that are the source of natural wildfires
   https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180531084415.htm
   https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/11/141113-climate-change-lightning-atmosphere-science/
   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/us/dry-thunderstorms-california-fires.html

   It is also true, of course, that a century of fire suppression has prevented the routine clearing of brush and downed limbs that would normally occur. However, many of the fires are burning over each other year after year, which suggests that mere fire suppression is not the major factor at play.
   https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2830/six-trends-to-know-about-fire-season-in-the-western-us/

   all of the above are made more economically problematic by the fact that humans are moving further and further out into rural and wilderness areas, so even if the burned acreage were steady from year to year (it is actually increasing),
   https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-wildfires#Annual%20Number%20of%20Acres%20Burned%20in%20Wildland%20Fires,%201980-2019

   the economic harm would be increasing.
   https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-wildfires#Top%2010%20Costliest%20Wildland%20Fires%20In%20The%20United%20States%20(1)
   https://www.pnas.org/content/115/13/3314

   Unfortunately, wildfires are also a positive-feedback mechanism that accelerate global warming.
   https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2912/satellite-data-record-shows-climate-changes-impact-on-fires/
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/gone-in-a-generation/forest-climate-change.html

   Of course, I welcome any evidence that I am incorrect on these factors, not least because being wrong would mean that I’m less likely to spend two weeks hiding inside from hazardous air conditions every year. I’m also quite fond of the Pacific Northwest’s rain forest ecosystems, and being wrong about their decline would be welcome.

   Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.