The Bayesian Conspiracy

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We discuss the YIMBY movement in California, and how Brian Hanlon & co. got real legislative change happening.

Primary Links
CA YIMBY
Contact Brian – Brian@CAYIMBY.org
Great article on SB827 including interview with Brian
The Welcoming Neighbor Network

Other Links
George Carlin on NIMBY
CARLA is now CalHDF
SF BARF
Black-Eyes put on a hell of a punk show… and they just reunited to put on three shows this coming April
TBC episode on Getting Lucky
TBC episode on Georgist Land Value Taxes
A COVIDy blog post on getting Paxlovid in the US
Clearer Thinking on Importance Hacking

00:01 – CA YIMBY
01:01:16 – Possible to Slow AI via Legislation?
01:08:57 – Guild of the Rose Update
01:09:49 – LW posts
01:43:09 – Thank the Patron

We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Our Patreon page–your support is most rational, and totally effective. (also merch)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Worried about AGI running amok in the near future? John Wentworth thinks we can align AI. In 10-15 years. With greater than 50/50 probability. And he has a plan!

We discuss The Plan, its merits, and how it has progressed over the past year.

Primary Sources:
The Plan
The Plan – 2022 Update

Also discussed:
The Basic Foundations for Agent Models sequence
The Telephone Theorem
The “Minimal Latents” Approach to Natural Abstractions

Help With The Plan, Get The Skills, Save The World:
Read The Embedded Agency Sequence
Join SERI MATS! (see also SERI MATS tag on LessWrong)
Apply for funding from The Long-Term Future Fund

56:05 – Guild of the Rose Update
57:36 – Feedback
58:20 – LW posts
1:19:09 – Thank the Patron

We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Our Patreon page–your support is most rational, and totally effective. (also merch)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We discuss Out To Get You by Zvi. A lot of clouds get yelled at.

2:55 – Main Topic: Getting Got
1:08:48 – LW posts
1:18:55 – Thank the Patron

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Matt Freeman gives a primer in how to uses Bayesian decision making in normal life, via decision trees. We also discuss utilitarianism, the Guild of the Rose, and recent AI advances. We are now in the early singularity.

Guild of the Rose:
Playlist of Decision Tree “lectures”
Guild workshop page 1
Guild workshop page 2
Guild workshop page 3

Reflecting on the 2022 Guild of the Rose Workshops

How to identify whether text is true or false directly from a model’s *unlabeled activations*.

Zvi On the Diplomacy AI

AI superpowers – can tell race via chest Xray. Can tell sex via retina scan (87%).

0:00:23 Practical Decision Trees
1:05:46 Utilitarian & Other Ethics considerations
1:31:01 Guild of the Rose info
1:39:02 Bayesian AI Corner
2:08:18 Should we have a Butlerian Jihad?
2:31:36 Thank the Patron!

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Aella comes on the show to tell us what the heck Circling is and why we should do it.

0:01:21 How Many Rationalists Are There?
0:04:40 Circling
1:09:42 LW Posts
1:41:35 Thank the Patron!

Aella’s Blog

The Patreon bit where we discuss The Murder Button

Circle Anywhere

Authentic Relating International

Julia Galef on Bayes’ Equation

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

David from The Mind Killer joins us. We got to talking about the FTX collapse and some of the waves it sent through the Effective Altruism community. Afterwards David helps us out with personal finance.

0:00:00 Intro
0:02:08 The Sequences Now Formatted For Zoomers
0:11:25 FTX Collapse & EA Shockwaves
0:54:20 Personal Finance
1:43:20 Thank the Patron!

The Sequences In A Zoomer-Readable Format

FTX: The $32B implosion – a good fast roundup of what the hell happened

Yudkowsky’s essay on FTX Future Fund money that’s been paid out

Yudkowsky’s essay warning against humans trying to use utilitarianism 14 years ago

Bunch of Twitter – The reason we have excess money to give; Robert Wiblin; a god complex; conflating utilitarianism with naive utilitarianism; the ultimate take-away

Our recent episode on Virtue Ethics

Erik Hoel criticizing EA

More details about the FTX stuff will be on the next episode of The Mind Killer

“Investment is a bet that a thing will be important in the future” – David

Nassim Taleb’s Barbell Investment Strategy

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Our Patreon page, your support is most rational, and totally effective. Also merch!

none

Next Episode’s Sequence Posts: (for really real this time)

Absolute Authority

Infinite Certainty