The Bayesian Conspiracy

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We speak with Cornelius about this idea that Monachy is good because it can save us from populist fascism.

1:44:50 LW posts
2:14:45 Thank the Patron

Cornelius blogs at EsotericMusings.substack.com

Also mentioned:

Gray Mirror Substack

Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann Hoppe

Jace’s counterargument is basically a link to Scott Alexander’s Anti-Reactionary FAQ

We did a “Reactions to this episode” mini-episode the following week

Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

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We catch up on stuff and hit a few wandering targets.

0:01 Jace on Lithium
21:10 Feedback
26:05 LW posts
50:06 Nuclear Ukraine
59:43 Nuclear Us
1:05:30 Steven Tries To Get Us Cancelled

Lithium in drinking water linked with lower suicide rates

The Mind Killer – Vladimir Putin’s Small Dick Energy

Warcasting – ACX and Zvi

Razom Ukraine delivers medical supplies

Robert Wiblin leaving London

Potasium Iodide tablets

Eneasz Interviews Ada Palmer

Keep Your Identity Small

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We discuss A Chemical Hunger – the paper presenting the hypothesis that the modern obesity epidemic is due to enviromental contamination causing widespread lithium poisoning.

EDIT – MAJOR UPDATE – It’s probably not lithium!

Links to become a patron of this group, or contact them

BMI Calculator

Less Wrong Posts – 5:53
Main Topic – 15:09
Thank the Patron – 1:50:23

[PART I – MYSTERIES]
[PART II – CURRENT THEORIES OF OBESITY ARE INADEQUATE]
[PART III – ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINANTS]
[PART IV – CRITERIA]
[PART V – LIVESTOCK ANTIBIOTICS]
[PART VI – PFAS]
[PART VII – LITHIUM]
[PART VIII – PARADOXICAL REACTIONS]
[INTERLUDE H – WELL WELL WELL]
[PART IX – ANOREXIA IN ANIMALS]
[PART X – WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT]

Eneasz’s tldr notes

Extracting lithium from seawater

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The Conspiracy comes out strongly in favor of switching to Normal Predictions, which is safe and easy when you use the Jan Christian Refsgaard method!

Also, we agree with Zvi that Change is Bad.

(Though note that changing to Normal Predictions has so many positives that it outweighs the Bad of Change, so don’t let that dissuade you in this instance.)

Things of interest:

Scott Alexander’s predictions 2022

Timing:
32:15 Main Topic
1:38:43 Thank the Patron

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A few days ago I asked Wes a couple follow-up questions on wireheading, and later chatted with Emilio from the Discord on-record. I thought it wouldn’t be too long, but it turned out to go about as long as a full episode. So now there’s a bonus episode available for Patrons (and Discord members) on Wireheading. Here’s a trailer, to entice you into getting the full thing.

To subscribe to us on Patreon — our Patreon page

To join the Discord —  our discord